An initial picture of migration & adaptation vis-à-vis environmental change in Satjelia Island of Indian Bengal Delta

Ladies discussing

Ladies discussing

On July 7, 2015 DECCMA Researchers from Jadavpur University and Centre for Environment and Development, Kolkata, India interacted with local residents of Satjelia island of Gosaba block (sub-district), of the Indian Bengal Delta for a focus group discussion (FGD). Attended by 15 men and 10 women, the discussion was conducted in local language (Bangla) in two separate male-female groups.

Prof. Sugata Hazra introduced the objectives of DECCMA. Although Satjelia does not face the risk of erosion as faced by some other islands of this delta, the responses from this FGD were important to understand other stresses experienced by the people of this region.

The following themes were discussed:

Perceived Climatic Changes: Imbalances in climatic conditions have become more prevalent since the occurrence of Cyclone Aila in 2009. These changes include unpredictable weather, untimely setting in of seasons, erratic rainfall, increase in temperature, floods and cyclones and saline water intrusion.

Effects on Livelihoods: Whiplash of environmental stress is being faced by all age groups, across all livelihoods. Farmers are worst affected followed by the fishermen, honey and crab collectors. Not only are the people shifting between livelihoods but also competing to carry those out in limited available space.

Coping and Adaptation strategies: Adaptation measures include successful cultivation of salt tolerant rice varieties. Development initiatives include introduction of solar power since the island has no electricity. The villagers are also adopting coping mechanisms to survive by constructing temporary mud embankments which are unreliable.

Migration as a response to the stresses – People are mostly migrating to the nearest urban and peri-urban areas to work in bags, hosiery manufacturing units and tanneries. Young people are migrating seeking education. A lot of women who have school education are now going to Kolkata to work as care-givers for patients.

Migration successful or unsuccessful?: Success for these people is a very grey area. Migration is ushering in economic success but the pitfalls include diseases. Family as a social unit is getting disrupted at the cost of economic gains. Exploitation at the hands of middlemen hardly makes migration successful.

Impacts of migration: Households are devoid of men, women and young people. The social structure is thus getting affected with mostly the elderly being left behind. The island is gradually becoming home to trapped population.

If you are interested please contact Sumana (sumana.ju.deccma@gmail.com) for a full version of the report

Contributions of migration to household resilience among rural rice farmers in the Mahanadi delta

Landscape in the delta

Landscape in the delta

DECCMA researcher, Dr Ellie Tighe (University of Southampton), spent six months in the Mahanadi Delta, Odisha, India undertaking qualitative research on the impact of migration in helping households in the delta cope with various shocks and stresses. Dr Tighe was accompanied by fellow University of Southampton research, Dr John Duncan who was conducting research as part of the Leverhulme Trust funded PREFUS project researching the impacts of natural disasters on the resilience of small-scale rice farmers.

Dr Tighe conducted over 50 in-depth, qualitative interviews with selected rice farming households across 10 villages in the Mahanadi Delta (35 of these households had a member migrating). These interviews explored the livelihood strategies employed by the households, the major shocks and stresses to their livelihoods, their coping strategies in general, and how migration enabled the household to cope and avoid such shocks and stresses. Themes were identified highlighting contributions of migration to household asset profiles, and subsequent resilience to climate shocks and stresses.

The findings identified four core types of migration:

  • Seasonal and cyclic migration of unskilled labour into low-value, precarious and irregular employment within minimal contribution to household resilience;
  • Long term and semi-permanent migration of low or semi-skilled labour into formal, low-wage employment with varied contribution to household resilience;
  • Permanent migration of high-skilled labour, high-value salaried employment contributing to household resilience.

The relationship between migration and household resilience to climatic shocks and stresses were embedded within the local institutional context (e.g. the effectiveness of local government institutions, quality of local social networks, availability and quality of local employment opportunities and existing household social and material asset profiles). These factors therefore have impacts on the effectiveness on migration as an adaptation strategy

Dr Tighe and her colleague’s findings will be submitted to a peer-review journal for publication shortly.

Human Migration and Environment Conference

Street scene in India

Street scene in India

On the 28th June to 1st July, members from DECCMA’s Work Package 3 participated in a conference run by the University of Durham titled Human Migration and the Environment: Futures, Politics, Invention.

Helen Adams led a session on ‘Promoting Successful Migration in Deltas: Ecosystem services, Risk and (Im)mobility’ examining migration under environmental change with a specific focus on deltas in Africa and Asia.

  • Dr Mohammad Nadiruzzaman (University of Exeter, Espa Deltas project) presented on ecosystem services in Bangladesh and the role of place attachment and livelihood patterns on migration responses following Cyclone Sidr.
  • Sara Vigil and Caroline Zickgraf (University of Liege, Helix project) presented findings on migration in the Senegal delta with a particular focus on fishing communities and trapped populations.
  • Using Cyclone Mahasen in Banglandesh as a case study, Dr David Wrathall (UNU-EHS, MDEEP project) demonstrated the value of mobile network data as an approach to monitor and assess behavioural responses of communities affected by natural disaster.
  • Olivia Dun (University of Wollongong) presented findings from a case study in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam to demonstrate how a village’s transition to shrimp farming led to salinization, subsequent out-migration, and an overall decline in community wellbeing and resilience.

The session was well attended by approximately 30 delegates. Questions posed by attendees demonstrated a strong interest in examining deltas as systems with unique environmental challenges and migration responses.

The presentations highlighted that there are certain land use and livelihood patterns common to deltas. Rapid change in land use from agriculture to shrimp is common to both the Bangladesh and Mekong delta. Artisanal fisheries and occupational immobility are common to both the Bangladesh and Senegal delta. There is reason to hypothesize, therefore, that there are broad patterns of migration that may be more consistent with deltaic systems.

However, the presentations highlighted the range of ways that migration is used to support human wellbeing in deltas. For example, in the Mekong, out migration was a result of development of shrimp aquaculture. However, in the Senegal delta there were examples of immobility and reluctance to move even for improved livelihoods. In the case of Cyclone Mahasen, migration patterns during the cyclone could be subsumed into broader patterns – there was not a cyclone-specific flow.

Overall, conference discussions showed a growing awareness within the migration and climate change research community of the influence researchers have in shaping public discourse. The example of ‘climate refugees’ as having provoked alarmism was one example provided that demonstrates the need for researchers to be careful in how we frame discussions to avoid perverse outcomes.

The conference was a valuable opportunity to build the profile of DECCMA’s research, learn from other research happening in the field, and to expand on our existing networks. Further information on the conference can be found here:
http://www.durhamconference.eu/

Summary: DECCMA Northern Team Meeting

northern team meeting

Northern team meeting

Even with the abundance of technological advances and communication options, the DECCMA team recognises and highly values extended time for face-to-face meetings. In May the DECCMA Northern team, a sub-set of the wider consortia, led by the University of Southampton met in Bilbao, Spain for three days. The Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), a sub-contractor of Southampton, hosted the meeting in their offices in central Bilbao. As well as BC3 and University of Southampton team members, the meeting was attended by partners from the University of Exeter, University of Dundee, Plymouth Marine Laboratories (PML) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The Northern Team meet every six months, in-between six monthly whole consortium meetings which involve the full project team with partners from Bangladesh, India and Ghana present. The objectives for Northern Team in Bilbao were to examine research progress by work package, review communications and team building across the consortium, discuss project outreach and publication plans and crucially, consider the basis for a coherent and well-structured Research into Use (RiU) strategy for the project.
Stakeholder mapping for the study sites were reviewed with discussions focusing on how the project can encourage stakeholders with a low interest but high potential influence to become more engaged with the project. Analysis of governance policy and acts has started, with a broad collation of available literature for the delta study sites; next steps will involve analysing policies for a better understanding of how internal movements of people may or may not be encouraged. Corresponding stakeholder workshops have been held in study sites to supplement this work.

GIS experts and biophysical environmental modellers have been collecting data on climate hazards (flooding, salinity levels etc) from study sites to construct first pass hazard vulnerability maps for the project study sites. The overlaying of these hazard vulnerability maps with separate migration maps produced from demographic analysis of census data by the projects migration work package will be the basis for sampling for the project’s household survey. These linkages were discussed by socio-economic and bio-physical experts alike to start the process of developing a robust and comprehensive sampling strategy.

DECCMA’s household survey will provide valuable insight into the drivers of migration and the decision process that drives community and family level adaptation choices. The design of this survey was discussed across all work packages to ensure that the questions are carefully crafted so that results feed into the areas that the project requires. One set of deliverables within the project is to provide criteria for evaluating the success of adaptation and migration in deltas, leading to the development of a rule-set for each. The process of defining ‘success’ was discussed in breakout sessions, starting with the identification of key criteria and indicators used to score them.

DECCMA will combine a section of project results into a policy-relevant integrated assessment tool, enabling scenarios to be run through the model, producing plausible and possible future states for a range of thematic areas. The conceptualisation of the factors that contribute the integrated tool have been formalised in a draft framework, which was circulated around the project for comment in early 2015. A revised draft framework was discussed at this meeting, along with a potential basis for the integrated assessment tool, the Delta Dynamic Interactive Emulator Model (DIEM) used in the ESPA Deltas project. Furthermore, an iterative learning loop of policy interaction and scenario development was tabled for discussion. This loop will take simulations that the integrated assessment tool produces back to stakeholders for discussion, to see if how they rate the plausible future that was generated under their initial scenarios, and to discuss what policy decisions they might lead to that result.

A large portion of the workshop was dedicated to discussing the development and articulation of a clear RiU strategy for the project. The team reviewed components that should be included in the strategy and identified where across the project they were already developed and need combining into one document. A precise ‘two-pager’ was developed to summarise the project’s impact aims, methods and activities that will be involved in achieving these goals and required resourcing. This will be developed into a full RiU strategy.

The workshop closed with planning for the upcoming DECCMA Whole Consortium Workshop in Ghana in July, the next occasion where representatives of the entire DECCMA project from Bangladesh, India, Ghana and the UK meet.

DECCMA PhD Seminar, 29 April

phd seminar

PhD seminar

As part of DECCMA, a group of postgraduate research students has been established across the project partners. In total, there are about 20 PhD students working within the project, with a substantial and vibrant group of six based at the University of Southampton. Their work complements one another by examining how people are adapting to the physical effects of climate change, covering a broad range of topics from the physical aspects of deltas to their socio-economical dynamics. In order to showcase this cross-faculty postgraduate research group on deltas and to give these early-career researchers the opportunity to present their work and to engage with experts in the area of mutual interests and expertise, the students organised a seminar series hosted by the School of Geography and the Environment of the University of Southampton.

The inaugural event occurred on the 29th of April 2015, where the postgraduate research students presented their research, with an emphasis on their objectives, methods and conceptual frameworks. Around 50 people attended the seminar, coming from a broad range of organisations (University of Southampton, University of Sussex, Oxfam) and disciplines (geography, environmental sciences, social sciences, engineering).

The first part of the event, chaired by Professor Steve Darby (head of the Department of Geography and the Environment at the University of Southampton), started with an introduction to DECCMA by Professor Robert Nicholls. Afterwards, Sarah Spinney presented her research on how morphological evolutions affect the sustainability of deltas, followed by Greg Cooper who discussed socio-ecological tipping points of deltas.

After a first round of questions, the second part of the seminar took place, chaired by Dr Craig Hutton (GeoData Institute). Qazi Waheed-Uz-Zaman explored the potential for social enterprise as a driver of community management in the GBM delta. This presentation, bridging both environmental sciences and socioeconomics, was followed by a talk with a similar approach given by Tristan Berchoux on the links between natural hazards, agriculture and the long-term dynamics of rural livelihood. Later, Margherita Fanchiotti gave a presentation on modelling community resilience to tropical cyclones in the Mahanadi delta. Following this speech, and based on the same community-based approach, Giorgia Prati presented her research on gender and adaptation in deltas. Finally, Professor John Dearing (Professor in Physical Geography at the University of Southampton) concluded the event by giving a vibrant summary of DECCMA and the contribution of PhD students to its outputs.

As a conclusion, it is important to highlight the outputs of this inaugural event. For the students, as early career researchers, the seminar has given them the opportunity to have feedback at initial stages of their project, from a broad range of people working in a variety of disciplines and organisations. Moreover, it has allowed them and the project to gain more visibility by showcasing innovative research from the early stages of conceptualisation. Last but not least, the event gave to all of the participants the opportunity to network, especially with representatives from the sister project ASSAR and students from other universities.

Building on this successful event, the next seminar in the series will be held in six-months’ time, with an in-depth focus on two of the research projects. The DECCMA PhD students from the University of Southampton will also be creating a network with other students from India, Bangladesh and Ghana, the next step will be to create a vibrant network with all the DECCMA PhD students. This group would then enjoy liaising with PhD students from the other CARIAA consortia.

Water recedes, but water-borne diseases rise on Mousuni island

water recedes

Water recedes

12 diarrhoea cases reported; absence of doctors compels people to approach quacks
As the water from the high tides, which destroyed hundreds of houses on the Mousuni island, recedes, people are increasingly facing the threat of water-borne diseases. The seawater that submerged large parts of the sinking island has left all the fish in ponds dead and spoiled acres of agricultural lands. Locals complain of a foul smell emanating from different parts of the island.
“At least 12 cases of diarrhoea have been reported. In the absence of regular doctors the people have no option but to turn to quacks,” Sk Golam Muhammad, a member of Mousuni Gram Panchayat told The Hindu on Thursday.
With 1,500 people lodged in eight relief centres and several others in makeshift huts the situation is going to worsen, Mr. Muhammad said, adding that the State administration should take steps to ensure that medicines and other health facilities arrive here in time.
“The people are demanding that health camps be set up on the island,” he said. When The Hindu visited the sinking island on Wednesday there was anger among the people over the lack of health care facilities. The only source of drinking water is a few deep tube wells for a population of 30,000. The health workers, who were supplying medicines and ORS packets, admitted that the supply was not enough.
Dasarth Kisku, Block Medical Officer, admitted that more medical aid is required and said that a doctor and two health assistants visited the island during the day. “We will have to step up the health care facilities on the island. There is a primary health centre that has been providing them facilities over the past few days. We will make arrangements so that patients can be admitted to the health facility at night,” Mr. Kisku said.
Nearly four days after large parts of Mousuni were submerged, local MLA Bamkim Hazra visited the island on Thursday. “The situation is grim,” Mr. Hazra told The Hindu, pointing out that about seven km of embankments has been breached.
“I have taken up the matter with the State’s Irrigation Minister Rajib Banerjee and Minister for Sunderban Development Manturam Pakhira. The people want the embankments to be repaired,” the MLA said.
Mr. Hazra, whose constituency comprises three islands – Sagar, Ghoramara, and Mousuni – was not very hopeful that the repairs could be made in due time. The MLA said that the work for repairing the embankments may not start before the approaching new moon tide that may result in another flooding.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/kolkata/water-recedes-but-waterborne-diseases-rise-on-mousuni-island/article6224946.ece

Rising tides pose a threat to sinking island in Sunderbans

Over 2,000 families affected, acres of farm land submerged

rising tides post a threat

Rising tides are a threat

Large parts of Mousuni, a sinking island in the Sunderbans archipelago, have been submerged with tides rising because of the spring equinox. “More than 2,000 families have been affected and hundreds of acres of agricultural land and several fisheries have been destroyed by the high tides,” Sheikh Ilias, panchayat pradhan of Mousuni told The Hindu on Tuesday. Ilias said that he himself was standing in knee-deep water. Mousuni, one of the 52 inhabited islands of the archipelago, and a vulnerable climate change hotspot, is sinking at a rapid pace. The island with a population of over 20,000 lies in the estuarine system and is open to the sea, said Tuhin Ghosh of the School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University. “As the sea level continues to rise, flooding will become a regular phenomenon,” Dr Ghosh said.

The 24-sq km island is the second most vulnerable island of the Sunderbans, next to Ghoramara island, whose population is about 5,000. The panchayat pradhan claimed that damage to the island and the impact on the people is far more than it was during super cyclone Aila, which hit the Sunderbans in May 2009. “The embankments here have not been repaired since they were breached by Aila. About nine km of embankments has to repaired to prevent seawater flooding. The western part of the island is vulnerable to tides and regular flooding occurs, but this time the situation is grave,” said Ilias. He said the State government had provided foodgrains, but supply is not proportionate to the number of people affected. A UNDP report published in 2010 said that 15 per cent of the delta will be submerged by 2020.

Original article in ‘The Hindu’

Thousands left homeless in Bengal’s sinking island

thousands left homelessKalpana Mandal, in her sixties, stood outside her tiny hut in Mousuni, a sinking island in the Sunderbans, with a long fishing net in her hand. All the land around her has been submerged, and hers is the last house standing. In a desperate attempt to save her humble abode from being washed away, Kalpana has covered most of her hut with the fishing net which she fastened at various points on the ground. But there is little hope of her dwelling being spared by the inexorable rising tide.
Since Sunday, large parts of Mousuni island have been under water, with hundreds of houses swept away by the rising tide caused by the Spring Equinox. “I have lost most of my possessions. Once this house is washed away, I will have to live on the streets,” Kalpana told The Hindu.
There are thousands like Kalpana on the island who have taken shelter either in flood relief camps or makeshift tents set up on the road. “Around 2,000 families in three villages of the island have been affected,” informed Tapas Mandal, Block Development Officer, Namkhana, under which the island falls. According to him, the situation has been worsened by the reluctance of the villagers to relocate to higher ground despite repeated requests from the administration. Mousuni Gram Panchayat Pradhan, Sk Ilias, said that more than three-fourths of the island, whose population stands at around 30,000, have been affected.
“Where do we relocate? We do not want any money from the government. All we have been asking is that the embankment is repaired so that our families can be spared,” said Basanta Giri, whose house was destroyed. There are over 12 km of embankments which need to be repaired, the villagers claim.
With water-borne diseases like diarrhoea spreading in the region, a shortage of medicines is acutely felt. “During the day we have been distributing ORS and other medicines for water borne diseases, but we are falling short as the number affected people is very high,” said a health officer working in the villages. Mousuni, with its proximity to the open sea, is particularly vulnerable to the rising tides. “Over the past few years, the sea level has risen, as well as the sea temperature. These have been the primary reasons for the present situation,” said Tuhin Ghosh, joint director of School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University. Dr Ghosh has warned that in the coming years the frequency and the intensity of such tidal flooding are likely to increase.
A joint report (Indian Sunderbans Delta: A Vision) published by World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and School of Oceanographic Studies in 2012 had stated that over a million people in the Sunderbans will be affected by the year 2050 due to climate change. The report has called for a change in the existing policies of the government and suggested a “planned retreat” of the people living in the archipelago to the mainland.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/kolkata/thousands-left-homeless-in-bengals-sinking-island/article6219942.ece

DECCMA PhD Seminar, 29 April 2015, University of Southampton

phd seminar 1A crucial element of DECCMA has been the establishment of post graduate research groups across the project partners with a substantial and vibrant group based here at the University of Southampton. The School of Geography and the Environment, with the support of other faculties hosts 6 of these students and will be holding a Seminar Series which profile their work in examining how people are adapting to the physical effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, alongside socio-economic pressures, including land degradation and population pressure, in delta regions. The aim of this series is to showcase DECCMA and the cross-faculty conceptual research groups on deltas, and to give an opportunity for the PhD associates to present their work.

As such we would like to formally invite you to participate in this meeting to both inform you regarding the progress of this significant project and to encourage what has been a strongly lead student process. Details are as follows:

DECCMA Postgraduate Seminar Series:

April 29, 2015 14:00-17:00
Building 44 / Lecture Theatre A
Highfield Campus, University of Southampton

Agenda

14:00 – 14:15 Welcome and brief introduction to DECCMA (Robert Nicholls, PI)
14:20 – 14:30 Morphological evolution and the sustainability of deltas in the 21st century (Sarah Spinney)
14:30 – 14:40 Socio-ecological tipping points in world deltas (Gregory Cooper)
14:40 – 14:50 First round of questions (Chair)
15:00 – 15:10 Social enterprise and innovation in the GBM Delta (Qazi Waheed-Uz-Zaman)
15:10 – 15:20 Livelihood dynamics and food security under a changing climate (Tristan Berchoux)
15:20 – 15:30 Modelling tropical cyclone resilience in the Mahanadi Delta (Margherita Fanchiotti)
15:30 – 15:40 Gender and adaptation in the Mahanadi Delta (Giorgia Prati)
15h40 – 16h Second round of questions (Chair)
16h – 16h15 Concluding Remarks (Chair)
16h20 – 17h Tea and coffee with posters
Frances Dunn,
Balaji Angamuthu
Sarwar Hossain Sohel

Trade, Environment and Growth: Advanced Topics in Input-Output Analysis

trade, environment and growthIn March 2015 BC3 hosted the following training for the DECCMA project:

This course applies the Input-Output (IO) framework to issues related to trade, environment, and growth. For the production of commodities and services, industries depend on other industries for their intermediate products. More and more, such linkages between industries cross borders. Input-output analysis is a tool that takes such interdependencies in the production structure into full account. It has been applied to a wide variety of topics, ranging from agricultural and development economics to disciplines dealing with energy and environmental issues. Typical questions which the tools can respond to are the following:
How much high-skilled and low-skilled labour in the US or India is involved in satisfying the demand for cars by households in Australia, reflecting trade in production factors?

What is the greenhouse gas footprint of China or India, or how large are the Bangladeshi (virtual) “exports” of water or value added in trade?
The sessions scheduled for the morning will be focused on exploring basic concepts and IO techniques, with especial emphasis on the application of the analysis to different research topics. The afternoon sessions will include hands-on exercises focused on the construction of IO tables in developing countries and at the subnational level.

The training, organised by the Basque Centre for Climate change (BC3) in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country , was given by Prof. Erik Dietzenbacher

For further information please visit:

http://www.bc3research.org/Doctoral_Course/Trade_Environment_and_Growth_Advanced_topics_in_Input_Output_Analysis