Nuclear Trumpsday Scenario

[Exchange excerpted from Professor Éva Balogh’s Hungarian Spectrum]

Stevan Harnad [To Istvan, a retired US army officer residing in Chicago area]: “Istvan, Do you think there is the sense and the resolve to defy the “commander-in-chief” if he decides to fritter us away with the codes?”

Istvan: “Boy that is a complex question Stevan. This will not be short: Every US officer swears alligence to the Constitution of the United States, not to the president. We are commissioned by Congress and formally our names are read into the Congressional record. However, if Trump ordered an attack on North Korea, arguing that it was preemptive to a launch by the North Koreans, our military would obey that directive, in my opinion.

“I think every officer is aware of what is called the National Command Authority (NCA) that allows Trump to direct the use of nuclear weapons by U.S. armed forces, including the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). But the Secretary of Defense is required to confirm that a nuclear strike is warranted. I believe that if President Trump used a false claim of an imminent attack by North Korea, General Mattis, the Secretary of Defense, would not confirm. Trump would then have to fire Mattis and ask the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs to confirm the order and my guess is that the Assistant Secretary would also refuse to order a launch against N Korea in the situation of a false claim by Trump of an impending attack.

“A constitutional crisis would ensue in that situation, and many bad things would happen, I would suspect. If Trump in that scenario tried to impose martial law and take direct control of the military, I do not believe the officer corps would obey him. National martial law was found to be unconstitutional in 1863 and it can only be imposed in specific geographical areas. Therefore as officers sworn to alligence to the Constitution they should not obey any such proclamation by a President. By law, there is a small check on the power of a mad President to launch a nuclear attack. Honestly I don’t think Trump is crazy enough to try to start a nuclear war based on a lie, but he has exhibited that he is mentally unstable and I am sure General Mattis has noticed that too.”