{"id":55,"date":"2017-01-18T11:48:45","date_gmt":"2017-01-18T11:48:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/?p=55"},"modified":"2017-08-14T14:53:07","modified_gmt":"2017-08-14T13:53:07","slug":"motivations-and-challenges-of-integrating-local-peoples-views-into-a-deterministic-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2017\/01\/18\/motivations-and-challenges-of-integrating-local-peoples-views-into-a-deterministic-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Motivations and challenges of integrating local peoples views into a deterministic model"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>by Gregory Cooper<\/em><\/p>\n<p>From predicting traffic to budgeting monthly expenses, mental models inform everyday decisions by relating possible conditions (e.g. number of cars) to expected outputs (e.g. delay length). As with computational models, mental models are continuously updated as new information comes to light. Consequently, no two perceptions of the world are the same, shaped by individual experiences of interpersonal relationships, culture and the environment around us.<\/p>\n<div class=\"show_more\"><p class=\"wpsm-show\" style=\"color: #cc0000; font-size: 100%; text-align: left;\"> show more<\/p><div class=\"wpsm-content\"><br \/>\nMental models have played important roles in the history of Chilika: a 1000 km2 coastal lagoon in the Mahanadi delta, India. For instance, it was hoped that the legalisation of shrimp aquaculture in 1991 would bring economic prosperity by diversifying local livelihoods and boosting annual fishery production. Instead, benefits were reaped by non-native aquaculture entrepreneurs, triggering cultural and socio-economic instability. The institutional settings soon adjusted, largely due to local pressures and scientific contributions of the newly formed Chilika Development Authority (CDA), leading to the banning of shrimp aquaculture in 2001.<br \/>\nMental models also prompted studies of Chilika\u2019s sediment dynamics in the 1990s, resulting in the new tidal outlet which has since increased fishery productivity 10-fold. Going forward, a balance exists between the institutional-led discouragement of juvenile catch and the desires of some fishers to maximise hauls.<br \/>\nI (very excitedly) travelled to Chilika in early 2016, hoping that both my mental and system dynamics model (SDM) would benefit from exposure to the system and its people. Until February 2016, my SDM was projecting future fishery production from empirical data and published work only. Interviews could tap into decades of experience working, living and \u2018dancing\u2019 with the system, as the pioneering system dynamicists Donella Meadows would say. I concentrated on how Chilika\u2019s fishers, scientists and governors perceive the causes of the 1990s collapse, the subsequent recovery and the lagoon\u2019s future. I also hoped the insights would help model evaluation and provide governance scenarios for simulation.<br \/>\nIn practice, various barriers exist to integrating qualitative data into SDMs. For example, SDMs assume lumped populations making the same decisions, different to agent-based modelling which can simulate individual decisions. Yet workarounds exist, like disaggregating populations and\/or estimating proportions making a decision for a given condition. For example, the former principle splits Chilika\u2019s fishers into traditional and motorised fleets, associated with different fishing schedules and catch capacities; the latter workaround estimates the proportion of traditional fishers purchasing motorised boats for a given average income.<br \/>\nFurthermore, interviews may provide a quantity of opinions which cannot all be incorporated into the model\u2019s finite structure. Therefore, it is useful to consider the rationale bounds of each stakeholder to understand how each mental model is shaped. Regional scientific experts may possess holistic system understanding, whilst fishers live and breathe the conditions important to their activities. Prior to the interviews, I was debating spatially disaggregating the fisher population into northern, central, southern and outer channel fleets. But from the fisher interviews I learnt northern sector fishers commute south to exploit the relatively abundant fish stock, dispelling my preconceived idea that fishers rigidly stick to their locality.<br \/>\nOverall, the field visit exposed me to different qualitative insights not acquirable from my desk. Understanding that traditional fishing communities may collectively begin using motorised boats when socio-economically favourable has highlighted how fishers adapt to intensify practices. Paradoxically, fishers exhibited environmental stewardship during the 1990s collapse by limiting their days fished, doing their bit to calm extraction stresses.<br \/>\nAnd finally, discussions with state and district level policymakers helped design feasible management approaches to test within the model (e.g. continued ecological restoration, bans, alternative livelihoods). The issue of policy implementation and adherence was continuously stressed, meaning any policies simulated in the SDM must be framed as \u2018if all fishers complied with regulations, the resulting dynamics may be as follows\u2026\u2019, which is important for model design and scope. A big thank you to all who shared their mental models with me!<\/p>\n<p> <p class=\"wpsm-hide\" style=\"color: #cc0000; font-size: 100%; text-align: left;\"> show less<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Gregory Cooper From predicting traffic to budgeting monthly expenses, mental models inform everyday decisions by relating possible conditions (e.g. number of cars) to expected outputs (e.g. delay length). As with computational models, mental models are continuously updated as new information comes to light. Consequently, no two perceptions of the world are the same, shaped [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":271,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5,4,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-from-the-countries","category-india","category-student-reporting"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8jyTh-T","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":290,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2015\/06\/25\/projecting-fish-production-under-climate-change-a-comparative-analysis-across-three-vulnerable-deltas\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":0},"title":"Projecting fish production under climate change: A comparative analysis across three vulnerable deltas","author":"Lucy Graves","date":"25th June 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) will be conducting a comparative analysis on the importance of fisheries for food security in the three deltas\/regions: Volta (Ghana), Mahanadi (India) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh) and how climate change could potentially influence marine ecosystems productivity. Deltas communities are strongly dependent on coastal fisheries including shallow wetlands\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Bangladesh&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Bangladesh","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/from-the-countries\/bangladesh\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"projecting fish production","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2017\/02\/projecting-fish-production-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2274,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/05\/07\/deccma-india-and-cariaa-partners-release-policy-brief-on-migration\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":1},"title":"DECCMA India and CARIAA partners release policy brief on migration","author":"katharinevincent","date":"7th May 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"DECCMA India and the two other CARIAA projects that work in country, Adaptation at Scale in Arid and Semi-arid Regions (ASSAR) and Himalayan Adaptation Water and Resilience (HiAWARE)\u00a0 have released a joint policy brief on migration. The policy brief synthesises research findings from across the projects, and was officially launched\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Delta&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Delta","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/delta\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/05\/migration-policy-brief-210x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2387,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/07\/25\/deltas-present-and-future-new-infographic-from-deccma\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":2},"title":"Deltas: present and future-new infographic from DECCMA","author":"katharinevincent","date":"25th July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"DECCMA has released a new infographic that summarises what we know about deltas in the present and future. Deltas are already exposed to sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding and salinisation. In the future climate risk will increase beyond 2050, but the particular nature of hazards differs between deltas. In\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Delta&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Delta","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/delta\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/07\/infographic-212x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":494,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2017\/03\/10\/training-opportunities-availed-by-indian-researchers\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":3},"title":"Training opportunities availed by Indian researchers","author":"sumanabanerjee","date":"10th March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Besides creating learning opportunities for its members, the DECCMA project also encourages them to make use of opportunities provided by institutes external to the project. Training opportunities help researchers to garner new knowledge and implement the lessons in their ongoing research. Two researchers from the DECCMA-Indian Team, Dr Somnath Hazra\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;from-the-countries&quot;","block_context":{"text":"from-the-countries","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/from-the-countries\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2152,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/02\/12\/deccma-holds-its-8th-whole-consortium-meeting-in-bangladesh\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":4},"title":"DECCMA holds its 8th whole consortium meeting in Bangladesh","author":"katharinevincent","date":"12th February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Katharine Vincent What have we learned about migration and adaptation in deltas? Last week nearly 50 members of the DECCMA team from Bangladesh, Ghana, India and the northern team convened in Dhaka for the 8th whole consortium meeting. It was an exciting opportunity to learn about a critical mass\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Conferences &amp; meetings&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Conferences &amp; meetings","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/conferences-meetings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/02\/DECCMA8th-photo-300x136.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":350,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2015\/09\/09\/contributions-of-migration-to-household-resilience-among-rural-rice-farmers-in-the-mahanadi-delta\/","url_meta":{"origin":55,"position":5},"title":"Contributions of migration to household resilience among rural rice farmers in the Mahanadi delta","author":"Lucy Graves","date":"9th September 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"DECCMA researcher, Dr Ellie Tighe (University of Southampton), spent six months in the Mahanadi Delta, Odisha, India undertaking qualitative research on the impact of migration in helping households in the delta cope with various shocks and stresses. Dr Tighe was accompanied by fellow University of Southampton research, Dr John Duncan\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Delta&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Delta","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/delta\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Landscape in the delta","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2017\/03\/contributions-of-migration-300x182.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1328,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55\/revisions\/1328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}