{"id":2105,"date":"2017-12-18T15:01:09","date_gmt":"2017-12-18T15:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/?p=2105"},"modified":"2017-12-18T15:01:09","modified_gmt":"2017-12-18T15:01:09","slug":"what-does-a-1-5%e2%81%b0c-increase-in-global-temperature-mean-for-deltas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2017\/12\/18\/what-does-a-1-5%e2%81%b0c-increase-in-global-temperature-mean-for-deltas\/","title":{"rendered":"What does a 1.5\u2070C increase in global temperature mean for deltas?"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Robert Nicholls<\/em><\/p>\n

Deltas are a climate change hotspot, where the effects of climate change coincide with large numbers of people. Sea level rise is a major threat to deltas, bringing risks of flooding and erosion. As the world tries to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5\u2070C, the DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project has been looking at how deltas will be affected by increases in temperature of 1.5\u2070C, 2\u2070C or 3\u2070C.<\/p>\n

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Volta delta mangroves (photo by Klaus Wohlmann)<\/p><\/div>\n

Following the historic Paris Agreement, 1.5 \u2070C has become a hot topic.\u00a0 The Paris Agreement commits developed and developing countries to global temperature increase to 2\u2070C, with the aspiration to limit to 1.5\u2070C.\u00a0 These numbers are widely believed to be critical thresholds beyond which significant changes in the natural environment would be experienced (known as planetary boundaries).<\/p>\n

show more<\/p>

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The issue of 1.5\u2070C has recently been high on the political agenda again, as the 23rd Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC met in Bonn to discuss a framework for reporting climate action to monitor the commitments made under the agreement.\u00a0 Knowing the implications of a 1.5\u2070C increase informs the \u201cambition mechanism\u201d, whereby stocktakes of progress are due to be taken every 5 years, with a view to then revising and updating mitigation and adaptation commitments.\u00a0 Improvements in science play a key input to ensuring that these commitments remain ambitious and on target to limit the damaging effects of climate change.<\/p>\n

Deltas are home to 500 million people worldwide, as well as being natural environments that generate livelihoods, income and essential ecosystem services.\u00a0 DECCMA has been investigating the effects of climate change in four study sites across three deltas across Africa and Asia: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) megadelta in Bangladesh and the Indian Bengal component in India; and the smaller deltas of Mahanadi in India and Volta in Ghana.<\/p>\n

Given the interest in 1.5\u2070C, we have used our customised integrated assessment model \u2013the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model \u2013 to look at the likely changes in flooding (in terms of depth of flood and area affected) and the impacts on population in the GBM in Bangladesh under three different scales of temperature increase: 1.5\u00b0C, 2.0\u00b0C and 3.0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

If we continue with relatively high rates of greenhouse gas emissions, models show that a 1.5\u00b0C increase could occur from 2011 to 2033.\u00a0 Rates of temperature increase have already been significant and rapid.\u00a0 Observed changes in temperature over the 20th century showed an increase in 0.7\u2070C.\u00a0 In comparison, in the readjustment period since the last ice age global temperatures have only increased by between 4-7c over 5000 years.<\/p>\n

Sea level rise of 5-14cm is associated with an increase in global temperature of 1.5\u2070C.\u00a0 This may not seem a lot, and it is particularly difficult to find a reference period because sea levels have varied significantly over the last 20,000 years, reflecting glacial periods and the readjustment of land masses.\u00a0 But, as an indication, sea levels rose by less than 2mm over the 20th century, so the projected increase is over 20 times more than that.<\/p>\n

Until 2040 the differences that are likely from a 1.5\u2070C increase and a 2\u2070C increase are indistinguishable largely due to the year on year variability that is already characteristic of deltas.<\/p>\n

If the temperature increase reaches 3\u2070C, some of consequences more than double.\u00a0 The area flooded under 3\u2070C is more than 2.5 times that under 1.5\u2070C of such sea level rise, for example.\u00a0 Those at greatest risk are in the central regions and northeast, where there are fewer polders to protect the land.<\/p>\n

The good news is that there is still time to implement adaptation \u2013 if we act now.\u00a0 Our team has investigated adaptation and found 93 documented examples in our study deltas spanning agriculture, water management and disaster risk reduction.\u00a0 We are now in the process of developing an integrated assessment model that will give us insights into adaptation needs and options under various future scenarios.<\/p>\n

For more information, see:<\/p>\n

Brown Sally, Nicholls Robert J, L\u00e1z\u00e1r Attila, Hazra Sugata, Appeaning Addo Kwasi, Hornby Duncan D, Hill Chris, Haque Anisul, Caesar John and Tompkins Emma, What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5\u00b0C, 2\u00b0C and 3\u00b0C rise in global mean temperatures in vulnerable deltas? Submitted to Regional Environmental Change.<\/p>\n

(This blog is also published in the December edition of the CARIAA newsletter<\/a>)<\/p>\n

show less<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Robert Nicholls Deltas are a climate change hotspot, where the effects of climate change coincide with large numbers of people. Sea level rise is a major threat to deltas, bringing risks of flooding and erosion. As the world tries to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5\u2070C, the DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2570,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[17,44],"tags":[70,60,68,71,69],"class_list":["post-2105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-delta","category-media","tag-adaptation","tag-bangladesh","tag-delta","tag-ghana","tag-sea-level-rise"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8jyTh-xX","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2504,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/10\/08\/university-of-southampton-hosts-panel-discussion-on-coastal-and-marine-implications-of-1-5oc-global-warming\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":0},"title":"University of Southampton hosts panel discussion on coastal and marine implications of 1.5\u00baC global warming","author":"katharinevincent","date":"8th October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"To mark the release of the IPCC Special Report on the\u00a0impacts of global warming of 1.5\u00baC, the University of Southampton is today hosting a panel discussion focusing on the coastal and marine implications and relevance for the Paris Agreement. Among the panelists will be DECCMA Principle Investigator Professor Robert Nicholls\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Conferences & meetings"","block_context":{"text":"Conferences & meetings","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/conferences-meetings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/10\/IPCC-e1538986643740.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2527,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/10\/12\/recording-available-of-panel-discussion-on-the-coastal-and-marine-implications-of-1-5oc-global-warming\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":1},"title":"Recording available of panel discussion on the coastal and marine implications of 1.5\u00baC global warming","author":"katharinevincent","date":"12th October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"To\u00a0mark the release of the\u00a0IPCC Special Report on the\u00a0impacts of global warming of 1.5\u00baC, the\u00a0University of Southampton\u00a0hosted a panel discussion focusing on the coastal and marine implications and relevance for the Paris Agreement. Among the panelists were DECCMA Principle Investigator\u00a0Professor Robert Nicholls\u00a0and researcher\u00a0Dr Sally Brown, who led the recent paper\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Conferences & meetings"","block_context":{"text":"Conferences & meetings","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/conferences-meetings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/10\/Soton-IPcc-768x432.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/10\/Soton-IPcc-768x432.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/10\/Soton-IPcc-768x432.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2387,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/07\/25\/deltas-present-and-future-new-infographic-from-deccma\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":2},"title":"Deltas: present and future-new infographic from DECCMA","author":"katharinevincent","date":"25th July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"DECCMA has released a new infographic that summarises what we know about deltas in the present and future. Deltas are already exposed to sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding and salinisation. In the future climate risk will increase beyond 2050, but the particular nature of hazards differs between deltas. In\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Delta"","block_context":{"text":"Delta","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/delta\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/07\/infographic-212x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2367,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/07\/23\/report-on-deccma-and-delta-alliance-convened-session-at-adaptation-futures-2018-adaptation-practice-and-experience-in-deltas-in-the-global-south\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":3},"title":"Report on DECCMA and Delta Alliance-convened session at Adaptation Futures 2018 “Adaptation practice and experience in deltas in the global south”","author":"katharinevincent","date":"23rd July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Katharine Vincent and Peter van Veelen DECCMA and the Delta Alliance recently co-convened a session on 21st June at Adaptation Futures 2018 in Cape Town on the topic \"Adaptation practice and experience in deltas in the global south\". The session included presentations from both DECCMA and Delta Alliance members.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Conferences & meetings"","block_context":{"text":"Conferences & meetings","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/conferences-meetings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/07\/IMG_4967-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2343,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2018\/07\/09\/new-insights-on-climate-change-migration-and-adaptation-in-the-mahanadi-and-indian-bengal-deltas\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":4},"title":"New insights on climate change, migration and adaptation in the Mahanadi and Indian Bengal deltas","author":"katharinevincent","date":"9th July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Sumana Banerjee DECCMA has released two new briefs that outline the latest findings on climate change, migration and adaptation in the Mahanadi and Indian Bengal deltas. Among the highlights are the relationship of migration to climate stress (with most stressed locations sending more migrants in both deltas), the barriers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Delta"","block_context":{"text":"Delta","link":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/category\/delta\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/181\/2018\/06\/IBD-208x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":318,"url":"https:\/\/generic.wordpress.soton.ac.uk\/deccma\/2016\/06\/02\/examples-of-adaptation-to-climate-change-in-deltas\/","url_meta":{"origin":2105,"position":5},"title":"Examples of adaptation to climate change in deltas","author":"Lucy Graves","date":"2nd June 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The DECCMA WP6 partners have been recording examples of adaptation that are in practice across our study sites. 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